Just a Bit Outside: Potential Breakout Pitching Prospects for Deeper Leagues

All of the prospects below are ranked outside of the top 200 on the latest consensus list. They should be rostered as such. Do not drop more valuable assets for these players and blame me later. The top three are a tier above the last two due to glaring injury concerns.

Underrated pitching prospects for deeper leagues.

Jared Kelley

White Sox/RHP/19/6′ 3″/215

Why he’s not in the top 200: Track record. Fell to the second round in the 2020 draft. Doesn’t have a reliable breaking pitch. Went to a tiny Texas high school and didn’t face a high level of competition. Prep arms aren’t always the best investment.

What to like: The stuff. Every scouting report agrees that he has a plus fastball and changeup. Control/command is solid. The delivery is smooth and repeatable. I’m not concerned with the lack of a breaking pitch at this point in his career. He’s never needed one. To say he dominated is an understatement. The 2019-2020 Gatorade High School Player of the Year had 23 career no hitters with a .43 ERA over 139 IP. He’s also took home a state championship as a QB. With proper coaching and modern technology I’m confident he can develop a viable third pitch. The concerns aren’t enough to justify his current rankings (48th in FYPD and 208 OVR).

Zack Thompson

Cardinals/LHP/23/6′ 2″/225

Why he’s not in the top 200: Injury and durability concerns. Had a shoulder injury in high school. Missed time with an elbow injury in college. Has never handled a heavy workload.

What to like: His four pitch arsenal. The lefty has three above-average pitches that occasionally flash plus. His offspeed pitch is usable but developing. Command/control is solid. I’d rather take a chance at this discounted profile than a pitcher that can’t hit his spots or someone without premium stuff. One of my favorite prospects that missed the consensus top 250. Pitched well in the (typically) loaded SEC in 2019 and was selected in the first round by St. Louis.

JJ Goss

Rays/RHP/20/6′ 3″/185

Why he’s not in the top 200: Prep pitcher stigma. They’re notoriously risky and fantasy managers are impatient people. He also has a skinny frame that lead some to believe there will be durability concerns. Checks in at 310 on the consensus rankings.

What to like: The arsenal. Another guy with solid command/control and three above-average pitches. If he can mix them it’s easy to envision him being a mid-rotation starter one day. “He’s young” is not a reason to ding someone’s dynasty value. Plenty of prep pitchers have gone on to be top tier fantasy assets.

JT Ginn

Mets/RHP/21/6′ 2″/200

Why he’s not in the top 200: Injury concerns. Had Tommy John in 2020 and missed the top 250 consensus rankings entirely. His lottery ticket like variance pushes him a tier below the players listed above.

What to like: The stuff. New York liked it so much they took him in the second round despite TJ. He has three above-average+ pitches and can locate them consistently. The fastball and slider may be plus. He’s a high risk pickup but may be well worth the reward.

Clayton Beeter

Dodgers/RHP/22/6′ 2″/220

Why he’s not in the top 200: Injury history and lack of a track record. Has had Tommy John surgery twice. He also struggles to throw strikes at times. Like Ginn his volatility pushes him an additional tier below the already risky players at the top of the list.

What to like: The stuff. May have had the best arsenal in the 2020 draft. Three potential plus pitches. Also has an average changeup at his disposal. Significantly curbed his command/control issues in a short but dominant 2020.